Report says Turkey at an impasse, will instigate conflict in East Med.

photo by defencenet

The Institute of strategic analysis STRATFOR came out with a chilling report on Sunday, claiming that Turkey is at an impasse and will push ahead with a heated conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean because it is at a dead end on the subject of stopping drilling in Cyprus EEZ. The analysis, according to defencenet said that Ankara set the stakes too high, or more than what it could handle, and because of this it now realizes that will not be able to halt the drilling in Cyprus EEZ so the only other option is to attempt to “get its blood back “by instigating a battle.

The report said that Ankara believes that by adopting this move it will jump back into the game or in the worst scenario it will gain a military victory that could possibly even redefine borders and control in the region.

Turkey does not even care if this affects its prospective entry into the EU, since intentions to enter the EU have been pushed to the side from Turkey for more than a year now!  Funds for Turkey’s accession to the EU have not opened since July 2010 and Ankara has already made it known that it is going to freeze all relations with the EU when Cyprus assumes the presidency in 2012.

All of this, says the report, might just lead Ankara to escalate the tension even more in the Mediterranean. It also says that Turkey is displeased with the neutral stance the US has taken on this issue, especially the issue of drilling.

Moreover it notes that Turkey is now launching its own surveys for oil and gas, but it needs to find a strong foreign partner to do so. So far it has not been successful since the US has taken a position in favour of Israel’s choice, France is defiantly an opposing force so there is no possibility there and Russia is a competitor and notable rival of Turkey.

Ankara chose a tough rhetoric, says the report, especially against Israel, and from what it seems it cannot support it, at least for now. If Turkey fails to stop the drilling in Cyprus then it will once again be viewed as being unsuccessful and this will only make Ankara officials even more determined to take other steps. And it is definite that it will not be successful in stopping the drilling because it will have to go against many super forces.

So the only alternative left, says defencenet, is to move on to plan B where Ankara believes it can prevail and instigate a conflict. Unfortunately this scenario is not good for our country, since Greece is presently the “weak link” in Ankara’s eye because it is in political and economic turmoil.


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