Will the Greek economy default on September 20? Well according to some experts it just might. They argue that two big bonds, a 4.5% of 2037 bond and a 4.6% of 2040 bond both have coupon payments that are set on that day, totalling 769 Million Euro and unless they want more money to go down the drain, then September 20 would probably be a good day to do it! Also… let us not forget that the Fed has scheduled a meeting for two days and… oh my oh my… it coincidentally takes place on the same day…!
According to an article by Market Advisor Peter Tchir: CDS “rolls” on the 20th. On the 21st, all Sept 2011 CDS will have expired. He says that banks own more protection than they sold to the September 20th date, so defaulting while those contracts are still valid would be a NET BENEFIT to the banking system.
As a whole, triggering CDS will likely benefit banks as I can find banks that say they own protection against positions, but find more hedge funds are uninvolved or have sold protection to fund shorts in other sovereigns.
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